Probably Stolen: Your Black Market Sellers Have Vanished. Here's How to Win Them Back
If thieves have stopped visiting your shop in Probably Stolen, check your Black Market reputation, your Black Lamp and your available customer slots. At -40 reputation, the Blacklisted penalty blocks ordinary contraband offers and new Underground Exchange barters. You can recover by rebuilding reputation through trades, an Alarm Transmitter Module or Joe Wild's Criminal Networking service. But there's a catch. Getting criminals to visit, getting them to sell you something and getting them to bring actual contraband are three different things. And the game treats them accordingly.
Wondering whether Probably Stolen's criminal economy is worth all this trouble? Our Probably Stolen 1.0 review examines fencing, faction politics and the extraordinary fact that your landlord might be more dangerous than Security.
Why Have Your Black Market Suppliers Disappeared?
Start with the reputation panel. The full-release faction documentation identifies three restrictions worth checking:
Reputation | What happens |
Black Market -40 | Blacklisted blocks ordinary contraband offers and new Underground Exchange barters |
Black Market -60 | Uninsurable restricts access to insurance |
Lower Levels -40 | Mistrusted blocks ordinary Lower Levels contraband offers |
Lower Levels -80 | Shunned prevents normal calls to supplier contacts and blocks Dr. Jackson's regular services |
Blacklisted doesn't permanently remove every thief from the game. They can still appear, but what they're willing to offer changes.
If your reputation is healthy, the problem may simply be customer selection. Black Market visitors compete for limited opportunities to enter your shop. The ordinary visitor pool uses conditional chances of 4% with negative reputation, 7% at 0-24, 14% at 25-49 and 17% at 50 or higher. Those percentages aren't guarantees of seeing a particular thief, let alone receiving contraband. A successful visitor roll, a successful stock roll and an actual item offer are separate events. Your criminal suppliers haven't necessarily abandoned you. They may simply have lost three consecutive arguments with a random-number generator.
How to Attract Thieves Back to Your Shop
The Black Lamp is your most direct tool.
Place one in your Display Case before opening, double-click it and select the thief you want to attract.
Black Lamp target | Base chance per lamp |
Food Thief | 30% |
Petty Thief | 20% |
Thief | 10% |
According to the Display Case mechanics, the calculation uses the number of lamps targeting that thief type, their base attraction rate and half your Black Market reputation. The result is capped between 0% and 95%.
For example, at -40 reputation, a single regular Thief lamp has an effective 0% chance through this method, while a Food Thief lamp retains 10%. Adding lamps can improve your chances, but only if the game has available customer slots. Open the Clientele screen and inspect your display priorities. Special display visitors consume ordinary customer slots, and some other display items receive priority over Black Lamps. Poor Lower Levels reputation can also reduce your daily customer allowance.
This is where Probably Stolen achieves something extraordinary. You've established an underground fencing operation in a dystopian space station, surrounded by smugglers, criminals and stolen military equipment. Yet the whole organisation can grind to a halt because your shop window doesn't have enough room to attract another customer. Forget threatening the local crime syndicate. Apparently, the real criminal mastermind is whoever controls the display arrangements. Fix those arrangements before raising the shutter, because changing them afterward won't rebuild that day's queue.
Before the full release, we spent ten in-game days trying to build a criminal empire and somehow ended up desperate for an inventory sort button. Read our original Probably Stolen First Look to see where the criminal fantasy initially struggled.
How to Recover Black Market Reputation
If you've fallen below -40, your first objective is to climb above that threshold. Fortunately, you don't have to wait indefinitely for a generous thief to wander through the door.
An Alarm Transmitter Module installed in your Alarm System can target the Black Market and generate a base +1 reputation change during the relevant nightly processing. The module can be obtained through Dr. Jackson. Select Black Market as its transmission target and check your reputation after the nightly process. The reward depends on the relevant conditions and reputation modifiers, while duplicate transmitters targeting the same faction don't stack. This makes the module particularly useful when criminal visitors have become unreliable, because rebuilding your reputation no longer depends entirely on successful trades.
Joe Wild offers another, more expensive option. Once his network is available, call his assistant on 8376 and browse the services. Criminal Networking costs 350 credits to unlock, followed by 45 credits per nightly activation, with a three-day cooldown. Each successful execution provides a base +2 Black Market reputation change, subject to modifiers, and selects either a Thief Buyer or Mercenary with equal probability.
Notice the word buyer. You've spent money establishing connections with the criminal underworld, only to discover that your new associates expect you to provide the merchandise. You've essentially organised a drug deal where everyone turns up asking whether you've brought the drugs. Still, the reputation gain makes Criminal Networking useful even when you're struggling to attract suppliers.
Joe Wild also offers a separate Seller Referral Service, costing 200 credits to unlock and 10 credits per nightly activation. Unlike Criminal Networking, this service recruits sellers, but it draws from a weighted supplier pool and doesn't guarantee Black Market visitors or contraband. When an actual Black Market customer arrives, successful trades can improve your standing, with additional reputation modifiers depending on the merchandise and transaction. Avoid unnecessary reports and failed aggressive bargains while rebuilding trust, since both can damage faction relationships.
Once your reputation reaches +40, the Safe Hands perk attempts to queue a regular Thief on its weekly schedule, improving your access to stolen merchandise. It won't guarantee your preferred contraband, but it's considerably better than hoping the next criminal happens to wander through the door carrying something interesting.
Does Refusing a Criminal Transaction Permanently Block Suppliers?
There's no verified full-release mechanic establishing that refusing an ordinary criminal transaction permanently bans future suppliers. However, refusal and reputation damage aren't necessarily the same thing. An unsuccessful marked-up bargain can carry a reputation penalty when the customer leaves, while reporting Black Market customers can cause larger losses. Those losses accumulate, potentially triggering restrictions that make your suppliers appear to have disappeared.
One important release change arrived in the October 28 hotfix 1.0.0.1, which removed the Black Market reputation penalty for reporting Lou to Security. That doesn't establish that earlier reputation losses were automatically refunded. Before blaming a refusal, inspect your actual faction value. If it has fallen, recovery is a reputation problem. If it hasn't, investigate your display setup, customer slots and randomness instead.
The Fastest Way to Troubleshoot Missing Suppliers
Follow this order:
Check both faction reputations. Black Market and Lower Levels penalties affect different suppliers and services.
Configure your Black Lamp. Select the appropriate thief and make sure the Display Case has available customer slots before opening.
Rebuild negative reputation. Use successful faction trades, an appropriately configured Alarm Transmitter Module or Criminal Networking where available.
Try Seller Referral. Use Joe Wild's separate seller service if you need more opportunities to purchase stock.
Watch several openings. Compare your reputation and Clientele predictions. One empty day isn't evidence of a permanent lockout.
If a named supplier won't answer the phone, investigate their faction standing, story conditions and contact availability separately. Raising Black Market reputation won't automatically repair a Lower Levels lockout.
For a broader look at whether this criminal economy actually delivers on its promises, read our Probably Stolen 1.0 review.
Losing your suppliers doesn't necessarily mean losing your criminal business. Most documented restrictions have identifiable thresholds, while the visitor systems provide ways to improve your odds. Just remember that being respected by the criminal underworld and successfully convincing a thief to enter your shop are apparently separate qualifications. Organised crime has never looked so dependent on interior decorating.
Had enough of convincing thieves to visit your shop? Our 25 Best Crime Games to Play Right Now features everything from petty theft to full-scale criminal empires. Some even let you commit crimes without rearranging the furniture first.
Probably Stolen: Black Market FAQ
Can you recover from -40 Black Market reputation?
Yes. The Blacklisted penalty deactivates once your reputation rises above -40. Successful Black Market trades, an Alarm Transmitter Module and Criminal Networking can provide recovery routes.
Does Seller Referral guarantee contraband?
No. Seller Referral attracts a supplier from a weighted pool, but it doesn't guarantee a Black Market seller or a particular illegal item.
Why are thieves still missing with positive reputation?
Check your Black Lamp settings, customer slots and daily selection chances. Higher reputation improves opportunities but doesn't guarantee arrivals.
Why won't suppliers answer my phone calls?
At -80 Lower Levels reputation, the Shunned penalty blocks normal calls to supplier-type contacts. Individual story conditions and contact cooldowns can also affect availability.
Does rejecting a Black Market deal permanently ban thieves?
No permanent ban has been verified. Some failed bargains can reduce reputation, but an ordinary refusal shouldn't automatically be treated as an irreversible supplier lockout.
Comments